One of the most promising figures in the Democratic Party, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is someone often pointed to as a potential candidate to replace President Joe Biden if he decides not to run for re-election in 2024.
As the already-low odds of Biden stepping down continue to dwindle, supporters have also pushed Whitmer to run in 2028, when Democrats will need a new nominee no matter what. But as promising a candidate as Whitmer is, she does technically face one electability limitation: her height.
Gretchen Whitmer Height
There are no official public records on Whitmer’s height, but based on the photos we have of her standing next to other prominent politicians, most estimate her to be somewhere in the 5’8” to 5’10” range, which is four to six inches higher than the average woman. That sounds good, but it also makes her two to four inches shorter than the current president, and (allegedly) five to seven inches shorter than former President Donald Trump.
Why is this important? Well, it isn’t. Or at least, it shouldn’t be. When basing your decision on any given candidate, you should probably look at their policy platform first and foremost. But when it comes to U.S. presidential elections, the taller candidate tends to win.
At least, that’s the way legend goes.
Although a lot of us can probably remember being told about this fun fact as kids at one point, the numbers don’t add up as neatly as common wisdom would make you assume.
From 1789 to 2008, the taller candidate only won 58% of the time. Since then, in 2012, Mitt Romney lost to then-president Barack Obama in 2012 despite being ever-so-slightly taller than him, and former President Donald Trump lost to President Joe Biden in 2020 despite being three inches taller than him.
Of course, the 2020 election has a giant asterisk next to it in this regard, because we’re still not sure if Trump is 6’3”.
He’s always maintained he is, but considering that the officially 6’2” Justin Trudeau is clearly taller than him when they stand next to each other, we’re forced to disqualify 2020 from the data pool until further evidence comes out, especially because COVID debate protocols kept Trump and Biden from ever appearing to close together.
Still, 58% is nothing to scoff at. When you narrow the data down just to 1960 onward, when John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon had the nation’s first-ever live televised debate, the odds increase.
Arguably this was the first period in American history where height truly mattered, as it was here that the average citizen could see each candidate walking around next to each other. After TV became the norm, the taller candidate won 67% of the time.
And it could be an obstacle for female candidates, like Whitmer, because women tend to be shorter than men. If she’s facing off against a male candidate, Whitmer will most likely be shorter than her opponent.
Although the 2016 election debates did a pretty good job at minimizing Hillary Clinton’s height difference from Trump by letting her use a larger podium, there was no way to hide it during the customary opening handshake between candidates.
Of course, Whitmer supporters shouldn’t be seriously concerned about this issue. It’s basically impossible to take any concrete lessons from presidential elections, as they only happen once every four years and there are typically hundreds of other major factors at play. While height bias is a real thing, for the average voter it’s likely to be vastly overshadowed by factors like party affiliation or the current state of the economy. It’s hard to look at the chaotic 2016 election, which was decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states, and claim that Hillary’s height had anything to do with how things played out.
Whitmer might have one small, intangible factor against her, but if she decides to decline a serious run for the presidency, her height won’t be the reason why.
