On TikTok, hacks, cheat codes, and game strategies abound—yet most of the gameplay discourse is relegated to video games, not low-fi childhood throwbacks… until recently. In late 2024, the platform saw a resurgence of comedic and strategic content around the classic hand-to-hand game rock, paper, scissors with views totaling in the tens of millions.
Because contemporary pop culture has so embraced this ubiquitous hand-to-hand game, TikTok user Nick Metzler showed interested users how to win consistently. Using psychology (and a bit of strategy) the game designer and developer shared his “psychological tip” to winning rock, paper, scissors.
‘Win every time at rock paper scissors’
On Jan. 7, 2024, @NickMetzler1 posted a video titled “Win every time at rock paper scissors,” with the caption “Win rock paper scissors with this tip that works 40% of the time, all the time.”
In the video, Metzler explains that the statistics around the game are wrong; for each player, there is not actually a 33% chance for each hand shape (rock, paper, and scissors). Instead, he explains that humans are “much more predisposed to want to do the first thing that they heard, or the last thing that they heard,” meaning that players are much more likely to throw a scissors or a rock versus the middle option, paper.
‘Most people either do rock or scissors’
Metzler suggests that to win, your first move in the first round should be a rock, so you can tie.
“Most people never open with paper, and honestly, that’s a good thing,” he says. “They’ve learned from experience that if they lead with paper they will often lose, because most people either do rock or scissors.”
@nickmetzler1 win rock paper scissors with this tip that works 40% of the time, all the time
♬ original sound – Nick Metzler
Metzler goes on to say that if he starts with rock and wins, he will switch to paper or scissors. If he ties, he’ll throw rock again, and if he loses with his own strategy, he says, “Well, if somebody does paper, give them the win. Like, who starts with paper? How ridiculous is that?”
@adeline.higley I knew I’d lose, still went for it 😂 Also, how did he inhale all the food🥴 #foodchallenge @Oscar ♬ original sound – addiehigley
‘I’m 100% using paper every time’
The video’s comments ranged from gameplay takeaways and tips to skepticism. One commenter said, “If you want a super cheat. watch their hand on the way down. gotta have a fast reflex tho.” Another said, “So it’s not a 33% chance, it’s more like a 33.333333(repeating)% chance. Got it.”
Others decided to go against the video’s strategy, saying, “I’m not sure when I’ll ever be able to use this in my adult life. But I’m 100% using paper every time.”
‘First is best’
Though Metzler’s strategy doesn’t have specific scientific backing, there is research proving most people choose the option that is first presented to them. A UC-Berkeley study called “First is Best” verified the theory of primacy (the theory that humans prioritize and/or have a positive bias toward the first option presented to them), relating how the theory can be applied to many contexts.
“In humans and other animals, we know that primacy has power with undue emphasis placed on the first instance that is encountered,” details the study’s abstract. “What is experienced first is remembered better, it drives attachment more strongly, creates stronger association with the self, influences impressions more decisively, and persuades more effectively.”
The Daily Dot has reached out to @NickMetzler1 via direct message on TikTok. The creator did not immediately respond to the request for comment.
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