A real estate expert is going viral on TikTok after warning those in the market for a new home against purchasing one in 2025.
TikToker @hardmoneyguy recorded his video in October, before the November election, so his warning doesn’t appear to be due to the incoming Republican administration. Still, he warned against buying properties that will be built in the next 10 years (from 2025 to 2035).
“We are in a definite catch-22 when it comes to real estate in America. This problem is not going away,” the content creator warned. As of this writing, his clip has amassed more than 557,200 views.
The ‘catch-22’ with home buying
As the price of goods and necessities continues to increase, @hardmoneyguy predicted that certain homeowners would likely hold onto their houses.
“There is no way that people who bought homes before 2020 are going to sell their homes,” he said, noting that he thinks this will be the case “regardless” of what interest rates are. “If interest rates come way back down, some people will sell their homes,” he said. “But if interest rates go down and supply is not drastically increased, it means that the home prices are going to go up.”
Already, we’re seeing how increased home prices are affecting buyers. In July, CBS News reported that sales of previously occupied homes fell for the fourth month straight.
“Home sales are actually at the lowest level since 1995, and the only reason that’s the case is because the demand is not there,” @hardmoneyguy said. “The demand is not there because the interest rates are so high and people can’t afford [expletive].”
To combat this, the content creator predicted that, in 2025, we’ll see more government-backed incentives for homebuilders to “build homes across the country.” This is good in some ways, as it’ll create a lot of jobs and economic activity. The downside, @hardmoneyguy said, is that if builders are incentivized to build more homes, they might be more focused on quantity over quality.
“They’re going to cut corners like crazy,” he said.
As a result, @hardmoneyguy advised homeowners to negotiate a five to 10-year builders warranty. He encouraged real estate agents, too, to push buyers to do this. “Don’t just push them to buy a house so you can make commission,” he said.
@hardmoneyguy Real estate disaster
♬ original sound – hardmoneyguy
Other financial experts are also sounding the alarm
According to NerdWallet, 2025 offers a mix of good and bad news for homebuyers.
The good news, as @hardmoneyguy predicted, is that there will be more homes to choose from since builders are reportedly feeling more optimistic about the incoming market conditions. There’s also a sense that mortgage rates could decline—even if only slightly.
For most of the year, mortgage rates were in the 6 to 7 percent range. However, NerdWallet said that forecasters have expressed confidence rates could fall below 6 percent in the new year.
And that segues into the bad news for homebuyers: Even if mortgage rates drop, they won’t drop a ton. Without a significant drop (in the 4 to 6 percent range), it’s likely that homes will remain unaffordable for a large share of the market. What’s more, with high mortgage rates, it’s likely that people who bought their homes in 2020, when rates fell below 3 percent, are likely to hold onto their properties.
Viewers say they plan to avoid buying new homes next year
In the comments section of @hardmoneyguy’s video, a number of viewers said that these predictions have them wary of both new builds and entering the housing market.
“We literally just canceled our build today,” one man shared. “We will wait 4 years.”
“I’ve accepted my starter home is my forever home. Luckily it was built in 1975 so it’ll probably last longer than the new builds haha,” another viewer said.
“Don’t forget government wants to go easier on inspections to get houses done faster,” a third commenter added.
Other homeowners who bought their properties in 2020 confirmed @hardmoneyguy’s prediction that these people won’t be selling their houses anytime soon.
“I’m one of those people,” one viewer admitted. “No way am I selling my mortgage is $700.”
“Bought in 2018 and refinanced to under 3% in 2020,” another said. “I’m pretty sure I’m going to die in this house.”
“My mortgage is $765 I never even thought about selling,” another homeowner wrote.
The Daily Dot has reached out to @hardmoneyguy via TikTok comment.
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