If the U.S. really is on the brink of a recession, online bettors are determined to at least make a few bucks off the collapse.
Traders on the event-based betting platform Polymarket have placed more than $2 million in wagers on a recession before the end of 2025, with the marketplace putting the odds of a downturn at 65%.
Odds hovered around 25% for the first month of President Donald Trump’s new term before rising steadily throughout March. But Trump’s dramatic global trade tariffs—announced last week and implemented at midnight—sent the probability of a recession skyrocketing.
Since April 1, the day before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, Polymarket traders have pumped more than $1.1 million into the recession bet, and the odds have climbed more than 25%.
“Everything is crashing—except on Polymarket!” the platform’s official X account gloated.
While investors and retirees are already feeling the pain of a falling stock market, the online marketplace will only recognize an official recession, which requires either two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction or a public announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Some Polymarket users have a substantial chunk of cash riding on those GDP prints.
One serial trader, who goes by the name of BuckMySalls, funneled more than $30,000 in recession bets. That’s just a small portion of the nearly $1.3 million in Polymarket bets they own.
On the other side, a recession shorter by the username of WhaleZone put down around $30,000 betting against a downturn. As the odds have increased, their position has lost more than $7,000.
More and more economists and financial executives with actual, real-life names are siding with BuckMySalls, likely helping to drive the recession odds upward on Polymarket.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon called a recession “a likely outcome” in an interview on Fox Business this morning, citing how the recent stock market pullback will impact consumer demand.
“These tariffs will reduce manufacturing employment. They will reduce the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing firms,” warned Michael Strain, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, in a panel yesterday. “They will raise prices for consumers. They will increase unemployment. If they are not scaled back, they will likely cause a recession.”
Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, raised its recession warning again this week, though the investment bank’s 45% probability lag behind those at Polymarket.
The Polymarket comment section is, as usual, a back-and-forth between competing bettors. Some are mentioning JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley’s pessimistic projections, while others are predicting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and Trump will “pull the economy back from the brink.”
But a couple of commenters popped in to remind everyone what exactly they’re doing by wagering on something unpredictable.
“I love how people still act like the odds on Polymarket predict anything,” wrote one user.
“It is just gambling at the end of the day,” another replied.
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